Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings lineup advice for Sunday s MLB games

Luka questionable for Game 3 due to knee ankle

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Splitting hairs

One of the most difficult decisions to make is when to cut bait on a player, especially those drafted as roster anchors. Even though Kevin Gausman was drafted with the knowledge he was nursing a sore shoulder in the spring, the outlook was optimistic, so he was still expected to be one of the better starting pitchers.

Through five starts, Gausman is sporting a 5.57 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP. Optimists will note Gausman's xFIP and SIERA are both a run and a half lower. Even so, Gausman wasn't drafted for a 4.00 ERA.

Under the hood, Gausman's 18.6% strikeout rate is well below his career 24.7% average, and even lower than the 29.8% mark he has logged since 2020. His .348 BABIP is high, but Gausman usually carries a high level, including a historically high in 2022.

Predictably, Gausman's swinging strike rate is well below normal. His four-seam velocity is down .5 mph while his signature splitter is down .8 mph. These two pitches work in concert. Gausman thrown one of the best splitters in the league because it plays so well off his four-seamer. The inefficiency of his heater carries over to the splitter.

Gausman insists that his shoulder is fine, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Gausman is in the third year of a five-year contract and the Blue Jays are in a window where they want to win before keeping their core intact will be a financial burden. This supports Gausman's healthy contention since the Toronto Blue Jays don't want to lose their ace for the second half of his contract.

Furthermore, Gausman has thrown 101 and 100 pitches over his past two outings. It just doesn't make sense he'd be doing that with a lingering shoulder issue.

On Sunday, the decision to start or sit is based on format and needs. The Blue Jays are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. In head-to-head leagues, it's about desperation. If you're behind, you probably need to roll the dice. If you're ahead, reserving Gausman to protect the lead is the safe call. In other formats, my personal lean is starting my ace.

Some want to see a struggling pitcher post a solid game before trusting him. It can be argued Gausman pitched well last time with 6 2/3 innings while allowing no earned runs to the Kansas City Royals, but he only fanned two, along with yielding three unearned tallies. However, facing the Dodgers is a tall task. In daily formats, keeping Gausman on the bench is viable, then perhaps try to vulture a save from an available closer.

Everything else you need to know for Sunday Trusting Lance Lynn (44.6%) as a streamer isn't good for your blood pressure, but not only is he the highest-ranking spot starter on the slate, he's the top overall hurler. The St. Louis Cardinals wrap up a series in Citi Field against a New York Mets lineup with a below average home run rate at home. The hosts will have J.D. Martinez in the lineup, helping power, but it's still a favorable matchup for the veteran right-hander. Brandon Pfaadt's 4.97 ERA is misleading with the estimators pegging it a run lower. He's been victimized by a low 62.5% left on base mark. Pfaadt's 22.1% strikeout rate is a tick below average, but he draws a Seattle Mariners lineup fanning at the highest rate in the league. Matching up with Logan Gilbert isn't ideal, but Pfaadt should notch a bunch of punch outs in what should be a low-scoring affair. The finale of the Mexico City series portends to be the opposite. Austin Gomber drew the short straw for the Colorado Rockies, so any available Houston Astros right-handed batter is in play. Jeremy Pena (44.3% rostered) is the top option, with Jose Abreu (3.9%) in a good spot to get out of his rut. Framber Valdez gets the nod for the Astros. While it's comforting for his fantasy team managers that Valdez's absence from elbow inflammation was a relatively short 19 days, many wish it could have been extended a couple more days when the Astros host the Guardians on Tuesday. At least Valdez will be on a pitch count so the damage could be minimal. Even so, Valdez should not populate an active fantasy lineup. Apparently, Matt Waldron (1.2% rostered) did not get the memo warning that knuckleballers don't fare well in Coors Field as the San Diego Padres starter posted his best outing of the season last time out, hurling six inning of one-run ball, scattering four hits with five strikeouts. Next up is a home date with the Cincinnati Reds. Most conventional analysis is moot with a knuckleballer on the hill, but Waldron will benefit by having Petco Park at his back.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Chas McCormick (HOU, LF -- 15%) at Austin Gomber Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 45%) at Gomber Jose Abreu (HOU, 1B -- 4%) at Gomber Jake Meyers (HOU, CF -- 0%) at Gomber Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 33%) vs. Patrick Corbin Bryan De La Cruz (MIA, LF -- 18%) vs. Corbin Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 11%) vs. Framber Valdez Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 20%) vs. Valdez Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF -- 19%) at Tobias Myers Alex Call (WSH, CF -- 0%) at Ryan Weathers Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 83%) at Kevin Gausman Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) vs. Paul Blackburn Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) at Logan Gilbert Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 61%) at Michael King Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 56%) at Keaton Winn Salvador Perez (KC, C -- 92%) at Tarik Skubal Max Muncy (LAD, 3B -- 78%) at Gausman J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 92%) at King Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF -- 100%) at Gilbert Bryson Stott (PHI, 2B -- 67%) at King